C-FER works with operators to help them understand the risk that they face in their operations by developing customized risk assessments.
The client’s expert knowledge of the equipment and operating procedures is used to identify the threats and combinations of events that might lead to an undesirable event, including reduced performance or failure.
The analysis typically includes a broad range of threats such as operator error, corrosion, manufacturing defects, third‑party damage and external forces such as storms, earthquakes and floods. The probability of each event occurring is then evaluated using either historical failure data or rigorous engineering models which employ a variety of statistical and probabilistic methods to account for uncertainties in the equipment performance and operating environment.
The analyses also consider the consequences that would occur for each undesirable event. This includes life safety, environmental impact and costs associated with interrupted operation and repair.
The risk is calculated by combining the probability of failure with the consequences for all threats and is usually expressed as the expected loss per year.
Further analysis assesses which attributes of the system and which threats have the greatest impact on the risk. With this data, operators are then able to evaluate how specific, targeted changes to inspection programs, operating procedures or equipment redesign can reduce the risk, leading to the development of optimized work plans.
The comprehensive, quantitative approach to risk assessment provides a transparent, repeatable process that can be used to demonstrate to regulators a clear plan for risk reduction.